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Ukraine’s economy may have bottomed out

May 27, 2009

Ukraine’s economic downturn has bottomed out, in the opinion of Alexander Paskhaver, president of the Center for Economic Development.

“The decline in manufacturing and construction came to an end in January,” says Mr. Paskhaver. “This is evident if we compare the volume of output in these two sectors as a cumulative amount for January-April of this year with the same period of last year. It is clear that the decline has been shrinking every month. And farming is actually in a growth trend. Altogether, we can now say that signs of an end to the economic downturn are evident in the real sector, while in the financial sector the decline is coming to a stop.”

At the same time, the expert did not reject the possibility that external factors could affect the country and lead to a setback.

“Ukraine is strongly dependent on external factors and no one can guarantee us that there won’t be a relapse into crisis, because prices on export commodities continue to fall,” he noted. “The balance of trade is improving compared to last year, but its balance is still negative. An additional risk is the strengthening of the hryvnia against the dollar.

“Note that Derzhkomstat [the state statistics agency] did not publish GDP data for Q1’09, although it was originally planned for these figures to be published May 13–15. At the same time, we all know that in April of this year, industrial output fell 31.8% in Ukraine. Moreover, this figure was 30.4% in March, 31.6% in February and 34.1% in January. Data for January–April shows that, compared to 2008, industrial decline for this period of 2009 remained at the level of 31.9%, just as it is for Q1’09.

“Meanwhile, Premier Yulia Tymoshenko stated at a Cabinet meeting on May 21 that domestic manufacturing will start to grow again in three to four months.”

Tags: economy